Week 32 / 2026 | 3 – 9 August | SFI currently 140, NOAA forecast 120–130 | SSN ~102 | A 4–15 | Kp mostly 2, Monday up to 4 | Source: NOAA SWPC / hamqsl.com
Summary
The flux stays high — and the long-range forecast stays too pessimistic. Solar flux currently sits at 140 (SSN ~102, X-ray background B6.2), essentially unchanged from last week. The NOAA 27-day outlook only sees 120 to 130 for week 32 — the same forecast that has come in too low two weeks running. Realistically we expect a corridor of 125 to 145. For the upper bands that is a very usable starting point in midsummer.
Geomagnetically everything hinges on a CME that left the Sun on 30 July. NOAA expected it to arrive on Sunday 2 August with G1–G2 conditions — but nothing was measurable by Sunday midday (Kp stayed at 1 throughout). Two possibilities: the cloud misses us, or it arrives late. If the latter, Monday turns unsettled (Kp up to 4). From Tuesday the fresh 3-day forecast sees a very quiet field (Kp 1–2). The older 27-day outlook still suspects a small bump mid-week (A 12–15); the two sources contradict each other here, and for Monday and Tuesday the fresher one wins.
Then the calendar factor: the Sporadic-E season is fading out — hamqsl recently reported the E-skip window as simply closed. Short openings on 6 m and 10 m are still possible, but they are the exception now; on the upper bands F2 is carrying the traffic again. Conversely the nights are getting noticeably longer: on the low bands the DX window is slowly reopening — though thunderstorm QRN remains high.
Band forecast
With flux around 130 to 140 and a mostly quiet field, the upper bands carry solid F2 DX during the day. Values apply to quiet days; on Monday possible CME after-effects will dampen 15–6 m.
| Band | Day | Night | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160m | Poor | Poor to fair | Nights getting longer — first tentative improvement, high QRN |
| 80m | Poor | Fair | Intra-EU during darkness, thunderstorm QRN dominates |
| 40m | Fair | Good | Reliable EU/DX from dusk, NA late evening |
| 30m | Good | Good | Stable all-round band, FT8/CW consistent |
| 20m | Very good | Good | Main band — long daylight opening, worldwide DX |
| 17m | Very good | Fair | SFI 140 carries DX to JA, VK, NA — open well into the evening |
| 15m | Good | Poor | Reliable daytime F2 DX, best from Tuesday on |
| 12m | Good | Poor | At SFI 140, usable F2 openings around midday |
| 10m | Fair to good (F2) | Poor | F2 instead of Es — short midday openings, favouring S/SE |
| 6m | Fair (Es season tail) | Poor | Magic band — only isolated, short Es openings left |
Geomagnetic forecast
An unsettled start to the week as the open question, then mostly calm. If the 30 July CME arrives late, Monday brings Kp up to 4 — no severe storm, but enough to dampen the upper bands and open an aurora chance on VHF at high latitudes. From Tuesday the field settles down markedly.
| Day | Kp expected | SFI forecast | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 3 Aug | 3–4 | ~140→130 | Possible CME after-effects — upper bands dampened, aurora chance in the north |
| Tue, 4 Aug | 1–2 | ~130 | Field settles strongly — best DX window of the week |
| Wed, 5 Aug | 2–3 | ~125 | Quiet to slightly unsettled (27-day sees A 15) — 20/17 m carry well |
| Thu, 6 Aug | 2–3 | ~130 | Subsiding, stable conditions |
| Fri, 7 Aug | 2 | ~135 | Quiet — flux edging back up |
| Sat, 8 Aug | 2 | ~135 | Quiet — good DX weekend |
| Sun, 9 Aug | 2 | ~135 | Quiet — upper bands solid into the evening |
Recommendations for the coming week
- Tuesday is the day: high flux and a quiet field after Monday's possible after-effects — 20/17/15 m will carry worldwide DX.
- 20 m remains the safe band: reliably worldwide during the day, the first choice of the week — even on unsettled Monday.
- 10 and 12 m are F2 bands now: the Es season is over, but SFI 140 is enough for short midday openings. Background in the 10-metre article.
- 6 m: last call. The Sporadic-E season is winding down — if you still need a square, run the band in the background rather than waiting on it.
- Low bands waking up: nights are getting longer, 40 m opens reliably from dusk. The gray line is worth gold again.
- Monday with a plan B: at Kp 4 the upper bands sag — then 30/20 m are worth a look, and possible aurora at high latitudes.
Week 31 in review
Our outlook was wrong on both counts — fortunately on the upside. We announced a falling flux toward 110 and a slightly elevated field at the weekend (Kp up to 4). In fact the flux stayed at ~140 all week, and the geomagnetic field was exceptionally quiet: the planetary Kp index never exceeded 2 on any day, mostly sitting at 1. The G1–G2 impact announced for Sunday had not arrived by midday either.
That makes two weeks in a row where the 27-day outlook came in too pessimistic. The practical lesson for declining cycle 25: when planning band time, weight the current measurement higher than the long-range forecast — and check the daily numbers before switching on, not the weekly table. How to translate forecasts cleanly onto your own station is covered in the VOACAP article.
vy 73 and gud DX — your DX Weather desk
Transparency notice
This outlook was researched and written with the support of AI (Claude, Anthropic) based on public space weather data (NOAA SWPC 27-day outlook, 3-day forecast, hamqsl.com). Forecasts are inherently uncertain — actual conditions may differ. Questions or corrections? Write to us at [email protected].
