We are living in a special time for amateur radio. Solar Cycle 25 has exceeded all predictions and is delivering propagation conditions that many radio amateurs have not experienced in decades. If you are not active on the bands now, you are missing a historic opportunity — because these conditions will not last forever.
Solar Cycle 25: the surprise
When Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019, the forecasts were modest. The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel — an expert group from NOAA and NASA — predicted a maximum with a smoothed sunspot number of about 115, similar to the weak Cycle 24. Many hams braced themselves for lean years.
It turned out differently. Very differently.
Solar Cycle 25 surpassed all expectations. In October 2024, a smoothed maximum of around 161 was reached — nearly 40% above the prediction. The cycle showed a double peak with a second surge in August 2025. This makes SC25 the strongest solar cycle since SC22 (maximum 232.9 in 1979) and significantly stronger than SC23 (maximum 120.8 in 2000) and SC24 (maximum 116.4 in 2014, the weakest in over 100 years).
Historical comparison
- SC19 (1954-1964): Maximum 285.0 — the strongest cycle ever recorded. Legendary 10 m openings.
- SC21 (1976-1986): Maximum 232.9 — excellent HF conditions for years.
- SC22 (1986-1996): Maximum 212.5 — still very strong.
- SC23 (1996-2008): Maximum 120.8 — noticeably weaker cycle.
- SC24 (2008-2019): Maximum 116.4 — the weakest in over 100 years. 10 m was virtually dead for years.
- SC25 (2019-present): Maximum ~161 — strong recovery, well above SC23 and SC24.
Current conditions in early 2026
In spring 2026 we are in the declining phase after the maximum, but conditions remain excellent. The Solar Flux Index (SFI) typically sits between 140 and 160 — values that guarantee excellent HF propagation.
What the SFI means in practice:
- SFI below 80: Poor conditions. Only 40 m and below reliable.
- SFI 80-100: Moderate conditions. 20 m and 17 m work, 15 m occasionally.
- SFI 100-150: Good to very good. 15 m and 12 m regularly open, 10 m sporadically.
- SFI above 150: Excellent. 10 m open daily worldwide, 6 m F2 openings possible.
Band by band: the state of the bands in 2026
10 metres (28 MHz) — the star band
The 10 m band is currently the star performer for DX. It opens daily for worldwide contacts — from Europe to Japan, South America, North America, Oceania. The FT8 frequency at 28.074 MHz shows hundreds of spots from all continents on PSK Reporter. SSB and CW are busy too.
10 metres offers a particular advantage: the antennas are small. A half-wave dipole is just 5 metres long, a 3-element Yagi has portable dimensions.
12 metres (24 MHz) — the hidden gem
The 12 m band is often overlooked but currently excellent. Less crowded than 10 m, similarly good propagation. Particularly interesting for DX chasers because there is less competition. 12 m is a WARC band — no contests allowed, so a more relaxed atmosphere.
15 metres (21 MHz) — the workhorse
15 m is the classic DX band during a solar maximum. It opens early in the morning and stays active into the evening. Propagation is more stable than on 10 m, with longer opening windows. An absolute highlight for SSB DX.
17 metres (18 MHz) — long openings, little QRM
Like 12 m, a WARC band — contest-free. 17 m offers longer openings than 15 m and is excellent for relaxed DX. The narrow bandwidth (100 kHz) keeps things manageable.
20 metres (14 MHz) — the all-rounder
20 m is always good, regardless of the solar cycle. During the solar maximum it is essentially open around the clock. Morning openings to Japan and Oceania, afternoon to North America, evening to South America. 20 m never disappoints, but during the solar maximum it is especially impressive: signals are stronger, openings longer, the number of reachable stations greater.
40 metres (7 MHz) — night-time DX
40 m remains the reliable night-time DX band. After sunset it opens for intercontinental contacts. During the solar maximum the band can be noisier by day, but at night it remains a powerhouse.
6 metres (50 MHz) — the magic band
6 m is called the “Magic Band” for good reason. During a strong solar maximum, F2 openings are possible — ionospheric propagation similar to shortwave. This means DX contacts over thousands of kilometres on 6 m, which is normally not possible. Add seasonal sporadic-E openings in summer, which can be particularly intense during high solar activity.
If you have a 6 m capable transceiver, monitor the band. Openings often come unexpectedly and sometimes last only minutes — but when it opens, you can work stations from Africa, South America or Asia on 50 MHz. Unforgettable experiences.
Grey-line DX
A special tip for DX chasers: the grey line — the twilight zone between day and night on the earth’s surface — offers unique propagation opportunities. Signals follow this zone and enable contacts that are otherwise impossible. Typical grey-line times for Central Europe: shortly before sunrise and shortly after sunset. Particularly on 20 m and 40 m, rare entities can be reached this way.
What comes next? The forecast
- 2026: Still excellent conditions. SFI regularly above 140. 10 m open daily.
- 2027: Good to very good. 10 m still usable, but openings become shorter.
- 2028-2029: Noticeable decline. 10 m becomes unreliable, 12 m and 15 m remain usable.
- 2030-2032: Minimum approaches. 20 m and 40 m dominate again, higher bands often silent.
The message is clear: now is the time to be active. The next 1-2 years still offer outstanding conditions. After that, working DX on the higher bands becomes increasingly difficult.
Tools for propagation monitoring
- VOACAP Online: HF propagation prediction — voacap.com/hf
- DXHeat.com: Real-time DX cluster with map — dxheat.com
- PSK Reporter: Real-time reception map for FT8 and digital modes — pskreporter.info
- WSPRnet: Worldwide beacon network — wsprnet.org
- SolarHam: Current solar data, flares, geomagnetic indices — solarham.net
- hamqsl.com Solar Page: Compact overview of solar data and HF conditions — hamqsl.com/solar.html
Practical tips: make the most of the conditions now
- Check the high bands first: Start your DX search on 10 m and work downwards. The highest open frequency usually offers the best DX chances.
- Morning: east. Evening: west. Propagation follows the sun. Mornings open paths to Japan, VK, ZL. Evenings to North and South America.
- FT8 as an indicator: Even if you prefer SSB or CW — a glance at the FT8 frequency shows instantly which paths are open.
- QRP pays off: With these conditions, 5 watts is enough for DX.
- Use contests: CQ WW, CQ WPX, ARRL DX — during the major contests everyone is on the bands. Ideal opportunity for new DXCC entities.
- Monitor 6 m: Keep an eye on 50.313 MHz (FT8) and 50.150 MHz (SSB DX calling). When 6 m opens, it is magical.
Conclusion: seize a golden era
Solar Cycle 25 has pleasantly surprised us. Conditions are better than expected, better than anything we have experienced since the 1990s. For DX chasers, contest participants and everyone who simply loves operating, these are golden times.
The sun will not ask whether we were ready. In a few years conditions will deteriorate — that is the nature of cycles. If you want to work a new DXCC entity, confirm a new band point, or simply experience what 10 metres sounds like when it is truly wide open, do not wait any longer. Put up the antenna, switch on the transceiver and enjoy the bands. It is worth it — promised.
73 – your oeradio.at editorial team
Transparency Notice
This article was researched and written with the assistance of AI (Claude, Anthropic). The editorial team has reviewed and edited all content. Despite careful review, occasional inaccuracies may occur — we welcome corrections via email to [email protected].
