Week 31 / 2026 | 27 July – 2 August | SFI currently ~145, forecast falling toward ~110 | SSN ~86 | A mostly 5 | Kp mostly 2, Sat/Sun up to 4 | Source: NOAA SWPC / hamqsl.com
Summary
Strong start, then a slow decline — but at a good level. The solar flux currently stands robustly at around 145 (SSN ~86), clearly better than two weeks ago. The NOAA 27-day outlook sees it easing gradually over the week to about 110. Because the flux has recently been coming in above forecast, we expect a strong start to the week and a leisurely decline; roughly everything moves within the corridor of 110 to 145. For the upper bands this is a pleasingly good starting position.
Geomagnetically it stays mostly quiet (Kp 2, A 5). Only toward the weekend (Sat 1 / Sun 2 August) does NOAA expect a slightly elevated field (Kp up to 4, A 8–15) — no storm, but enough for a small damper on the upper bands. The start of the week is therefore the better time for DX.
Add to that the high-summer factor: the Sporadic-E season is past its peak and continues to fade — openings on 6 m and 10 m are still possible, but rarer and shorter than in June. The flip side of the short summer nights: on 160/80 m the DX window stays narrow and the thunderstorm QRN high.
Band Forecast
With a flux between 110 and 145 the upper bands carry solid F2 DX during the day, plus the fading summer Es. Lower bands remain weak due to the season. Values apply to quiet days; on Sat/Sun the slightly elevated field damps the upper bands minimally.
| Band | Day | Night | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160m | Poor | Poor | Summer break — short nights, high QRN |
| 80m | Poor | Fair | EU-internal only in the short darkness, thunderstorm QRN |
| 40m | Fair | Good | Reliable EU/DX at dusk, NA late evening |
| 30m | Good | Good | Stable all-round band, FT8/CW consistent |
| 20m | Very good | Good | Main band — long daylight opening, worldwide DX |
| 17m | Very good | Fair | Solid flux carries DX to JA, VK, NA — open long into the evening |
| 15m | Good | Poor | F2 DX during the day, best early in the week |
| 12m | Good (F2 + Es) | Poor | F2 usable, plus remnants of Sporadic-E |
| 10m | Good (F2 + Es) | Poor | With SFI around 130+ decent F2 openings, plus Es |
| 6m | Fair to good (Es, fading) | Poor | Magic Band — still Sporadic-E, season fading |
Geomagnetic Forecast
Mostly quiet, with a slightly elevated window only toward the weekend. For Saturday/Sunday NOAA expects Kp up to 4 (A 8–15) — no storm, but enough for a minimal damper on the upper bands; at higher latitudes a small aurora residual chance on VHF.
| Day | Kp expected | SFI forecast | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 27 July | 2 | ~145→120 | Quiet — strong start to the week, best DX of the week |
| Tue, 28 July | 2 | ~118 | Quiet — upper bands carry well |
| Wed, 29 July | 2 | ~118 | Quiet — solid DX on 20/17 m |
| Thu, 30 July | 2 | ~115 | Quiet — stable conditions |
| Fri, 31 July | 2 | ~112 | Quiet — flux easing slowly |
| Sat, 1 Aug. | 4 | ~110 | Slightly elevated — small damper on 15–6 m (A 15) |
| Sun, 2 Aug. | 3 | ~108 | Slightly elevated — field settles down again |
Recommendations for the Coming Week
- Mark the start of the week for DX: Mon–Wed brings high flux and a quiet field — 20/17/15 m carry worldwide DX. If you have time, get on the air now.
- 20 m stays the safe band: reliably worldwide during the day, the first choice of the week.
- Take 10 m while the flux is high: With SFI around 130+, 10 m opens decently during the day via F2, plus the last Sporadic-E.
- Sat/Sun = small strategy change: With Kp 4 the upper bands dip minimally; then it pays to look at 20/30 m and, at high latitudes, at possible aurora.
- Lower bands = early risers: 40/80 m DX only in the narrow twilight window — the grey line is worth gold. More on that in the Low-Band DX article.
Review of Week 30
Week 30 went better than the outlook had expected: instead of the forecast recovery "toward 130," the solar flux actually climbed to ~145, with a consistently quiet field. The declining cycle 25 thus shows itself capricious to the upside — pleasant, but hard to predict. Week 31 picks up on that with a high starting flux, before the value eases off again somewhat.
vy 73 and gud DX — your DX Weather editorial team
Transparency Notice
This outlook was created with the support of AI (Claude, Anthropic) based on public space-weather data (NOAA SWPC 27-day outlook, 3-day forecast, hamqsl.com). Forecasts are inherently uncertain — actual conditions may differ. Questions or corrections? Write to us at [email protected].
