Week 30 / 2026 | 20–26 July | SFI currently ~105, forecast toward ~130 | SSN ~24 | A mostly 5 | Kp mostly 2, Wed/Thu up to 4 | Source: NOAA SWPC / hamqsl.com
Summary
The flux started the week weak — but the forecast gives hope. Right now the solar flux is only around 105 (SSN ~24), well below what the NOAA outlook had recently promised. For week 30 the 27-day outlook sees a recovery toward 130–135 by mid-week. Honestly: the descending leg of Cycle 25 has repeatedly delivered below forecast in recent weeks — realistically we expect a corridor of ~105 to 130.
Geomagnetically it stays mostly quiet (Kp 2, A 5). Only around mid-week (Wed 22 / Thu 23 July) does NOAA expect a slightly elevated field (Kp up to 4, A 10–12) — no storm, but enough for a small damper on the upper bands. By the weekend the field settles down again.
Add the high-summer factor: the Sporadic-E season has passed its peak (late June / early July) and is slowly fading — daily Es openings on 6 m and 10 m are still likely, but rarer and shorter than in June. The flip side of the short summer nights: on 160/80 m the DX window stays narrow and the thunderstorm QRN high.
Band Forecast
With a flux around 105–130 the upper bands still carry solid F2 DX during the day, but less strongly than in the high-flux weeks. Summer Es keeps delivering the bonus on 6/10 m. Lower bands stay seasonally weak. Values apply to quiet days; on Wed/Thu the slightly elevated field dampens the upper bands minimally.
| Band | Day | Night | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160m | Poor | Poor | Summer break — shortest nights, high QRN |
| 80m | Poor | Fair | EU-internal only in the short darkness, thunderstorm QRN |
| 40m | Fair | Good | Reliable EU/DX at dusk, NA late at night |
| 30m | Good | Good | Stable all-round band, FT8/CW steady |
| 20m | Very good | Good | Main band — long daylight opening, worldwide DX even at moderate flux |
| 17m | Good | Fair | Carries DX to JA, VK, NA — a bit more subdued at weak flux |
| 15m | Fair to good | Poor | F2 DX during the day, but flux-dependent and moody |
| 12m | Fair (F2 + Es) | Poor | F2 weak, lives mainly off Sporadic-E |
| 10m | Fair to good (mainly Es) | Poor | F2 thin at SFI ~110 — Es carries the short, loud openings |
| 6m | Good (Es, fading) | Poor | Magic Band — still daily Sporadic-E, season fading |
Geomagnetic Forecast
Mostly quiet, with a slightly elevated window around mid-week. For Wednesday/Thursday NOAA expects Kp up to 4 (A 10–12) — no storm, but enough for a minimal damper on the upper bands; at higher latitudes a small Aurora residual chance on VHF. By the weekend the field settles down again.
| Day | Kp expected | SFI forecast | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 20 July | 2 | ~120 | Quiet — flux recovering slowly from the low |
| Tue, 21 July | 2 | ~125 | Quiet — upper bands pick up slightly |
| Wed, 22 July | 4 | ~130 | Slightly elevated — small damper 15–6 m (A 12) |
| Thu, 23 July | 3 | ~130 | Slightly elevated — field still active (A 10) |
| Fri, 24 July | 2 | ~130 | Settled — solid DX on 20/17 m |
| Sat, 25 July | 2 | ~128 | Quiet — good weekend DX |
| Sun, 26 July | 2 | ~125 | Quiet — flux eases off minimally |
Recommendations for the Coming Week
- 20 m is the safe band: Even at moderate flux, 20 m carries worldwide DX during the day — the most reliable choice of the week.
- Mark Fri–Sun for upper-band DX: Quiet field plus slightly rising flux — 20/17/15 m best at the weekend.
- Grab 6 m while the Es is still running: The Sporadic-E is getting rarer — watch beacons and FT8 (50.313 MHz), and work even the weaker openings with a Yagi.
- Wed/Thu = small strategy change: At Kp 4 the upper bands sag minimally; then it pays to look at 20/30 m and, at high latitudes, at possible Aurora.
- Lower bands = early birds: 40/80 m DX only in the narrow dawn/dusk window — the grey line is worth its weight in gold.
Review of Week 29
Week 29 fell short of the forecast: instead of the expected ~145 the solar flux barely climbed above ~135 and recently even dropped back to ~105. The quiet field, on the other hand, held up as announced, and the daily summer Es openings on 6/10 m delivered the most reliable DX fun of the week. The lesson: on the descending leg of Cycle 25, SFI forecasts should be taken with caution — right now the quiet geomagnetic field is the better ally than the moody flux.
vy 73 and gud DX — your DX Weather editorial team
Transparency Notice
This outlook was created with the support of AI (Claude, Anthropic) based on public space-weather data (NOAA SWPC 27-day outlook, 3-day forecast, hamqsl.com). Forecasts are inherently uncertain — actual conditions may differ. Questions or corrections? Write to us at [email protected].
