CW 20 / 2026 | May 11–17 | SFI 120 | SSN 75 | A 5 | K 2 | X-Ray C4.2
Summary
After last week’s high (SFI 159), the Solar Flux drops back to 120 — a significant decline of 39 points, but still a solid value for DX on the mid bands. The Sunspot Number falls to 75, reflecting the decrease in visible activity.
Activity is concentrated on AR 4432 (N13W36, Dai/Beta-Gamma) — the only region with notable complexity. It produces regular C-flares and shows gamma characteristics indicating M-flare potential. An M2.6 flare occurred on May 7 on the northeast limb, but the associated CME was directed away from Earth.
The geomagnetic field remains quiet to unsettled (Kp 2–3) with weak but persistent coronal hole influence. No Earth-directed CMEs in sight — the coming week should be stable.
Band Forecast
The drop from SFI 159 to 120 is most noticeable on the upper bands. 10 and 12 metres lose their regular F2 openings, 15 metres becomes less reliable. The workhorses 20 and 17 metres remain solid.
| Band | Day | Night | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 160m | Poor | Poor | Season over — short nights, high QRN, wait for autumn |
| 80m | Fair | Fair | EU evenings still usable, DX practically impossible |
| 40m | Good | Good | Still reliable, good EU and JA paths in the evening |
| 30m | Good | Good | Stable — the forgotten DX band delivers even at SFI 120 |
| 20m | Very Good | Fair | Still the main DX band, open worldwide during daytime |
| 17m | Good | Poor | Daytime openings still good but shorter than at SFI 159 |
| 15m | Fair to Good | Poor | Openings more irregular — wait for good days |
| 12m | Fair | Poor | Sporadic only, but Es season beginning |
| 10m | Fair | Poor | F2 rare at SFI 120, but first Sporadic E openings! |
Recommendations
- 20 metres is king: At SFI 120, 20m remains the most reliable DX band. Open worldwide during daytime, long paths to VK/ZL/JA from 06:00 UTC.
- 40 metres evenings: When 20m closes, 40m takes over — good paths to North America and Japan late evening.
- Sporadic E season starts! Mid-May kicks off the Es season on 10m and 6m. Even with weak F2 propagation at SFI 120, Es openings can suddenly enable intra-European DX on 28 and 50 MHz. Watch clusters and spots!
- Watch AR 4432: Beta-Gamma configuration with M-flare potential (45%). A stronger flare could cause brief HF blackouts on the upper bands (R1-R2).
- Use Mon–Wed: Kp 1–2 expected — the quietest days, ideal for weak DX signals and low-band attempts on 40/30m.
- Don’t forget 17 metres: Even at SFI 120, 17m opens regularly during daytime to Asia and Africa — less traffic than 20m, but the QSOs are there.
Live Data
| Band | Tag ☀ | Nacht ☾ |
|---|---|---|
| 160m | Schlecht | Mäßig |
| 80–40m | Mäßig | Gut |
| 30–20m | Gut | Gut |
| 17–15m | Gut | Gut |
| 12–10m | Mäßig | Schlecht |
Useful Links
- MUF Maps (prop.kc2g.com)
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
- HamQSL Solar Dashboard
- DXHeat DX Cluster
- SolarHam
Transparency Notice
This weather report was created with AI assistance (Claude, Anthropic) based on current data from NOAA/SWPC, HamQSL and SolarHam. All content reviewed by the oeradio.at editorial team. Corrections welcome at [email protected].
